Published Work
Fundamental analysis grounded in primary data, independent financial modeling, and differentiated views relative to Street consensus.
Hawk Center Research
Market assigns ~45% conversion probability to the 72-module TVA/ENTRA1 pipeline. Using a stage-gate probability framework, we derive 65% — generating $2.48/sh of incremental value the market is not pricing. Two additional service streams (ENTRA1 COLA/FEED and hyperscaler licensing) drive FY26E revenue +10.5% and FY28E revenue +16.5% above consensus, with zero module revenue assumed in either year. SOTP yields a $5.53/sh high-certainty floor and 2:1 risk/reward.
Proprietary Placer.ai traffic data shows ULTA gaining share (+3.8% YoY) while specialty retail declined −2.1% — a leading indicator visible months before it appears in same-store sales. Market is underpricing margin recovery by +140bps vs. Street EBIT consensus. Gen Alpha cohort entry into beauty (ages 10–12) expands the TAM beyond the Street's 4.0% CAGR, creating a cohort benefit not reflected in Street's 4.0% category CAGR. Together, these three views drive FY26E EPS of $30.8 vs. $27.1 Street.
Defensive carry trade in the BBB tech hardware sector. At OAS 77bps, HP's BVAL curve tracks the BBB Technology benchmark through 5–9 years and trades slightly tighter at the 10-year tenor, reflecting strong fundamentals rather than mispricing. Net leverage path from 1.46× to ~0.99× by FY27 creates upgrade optionality not priced into current spread levels. With $7.9B in liquidity and $2.5–3.0B annual FCF, carry of 4.3% provides substantial downside protection. Assuming 10bps spread tightening, total 12-month return is 5.8–6.0%.
Methodology Note
All research is independently produced as part of the UW–Madison Applied Security Analysis Program unless otherwise noted. Reports reflect views at time of publication. This site does not constitute investment advice. Figures are sourced from company filings, Bloomberg Terminal, FactSet, and Placer.ai.
Competitions
Stock pitch and credit case competitions entered alongside the ASAP program.
Independent long thesis built using Perplexity Computer as part of Perplexity's national student stock pitch competition. The 82% selloff from $57 reflects counterparty risk (ENTRA1), not technology risk — a distinction the market treats as synonymous. Stage-gate analysis and a four-layer revenue model (engineering services, module sales, lifecycle services, optionality) underpin a $14.19 price target. Published as an interactive web thesis with live charts and SOTP waterfall.
Pitch prepared for the Oaktree Future Leaders Program case study competition. Thesis centers on structural protection of the DDTL 2.0: bankruptcy-remote SPV, tiered LTV thresholds (90% IG / 60% non-IG), and 1.4x minimum contract coverage ratio implying $7B+ projected cash flow. Primary research included an expert call with Brendan Rogers at Wolfe Research confirming 8–10 year GPU functional lifespans — directly de-risking terminal collateral value. Six diligence questions drafted for management Q&A.