Applied Security Analysis Program · Wisconsin School of Business
MS Finance candidate at UW–Madison. I look for companies where the data has moved but the market narrative hasn’t caught up yet.
Published Work
Market assigns ~45% conversion probability to the TVA/ENTRA1 pipeline. Using a stage-gate framework, we derive 65% — generating $2.48/sh the market is not pricing. Two above-consensus service streams drive FY26E revenue +10.5% vs. Street with zero module revenue assumed.
Placer.ai traffic data (+3.8% YoY vs. specialty retail −2.1%) contradicts the saturation narrative. Margin recovery is underpriced by +140bps vs. Street EBIT. Gen Alpha cohort entry expands TAM beyond the Street's 4.0% CAGR, driving FY26E EPS of $30.8 vs. $27.1 consensus.
Defensive carry in the BBB tech sector. Net leverage path from 1.46× to ~0.99× by FY27 creates upgrade optionality not priced into OAS 77bps. Carry (4.3%) and $7.9B liquidity backstop limit downside. Total return 5.8–6.0% over 12 months assuming 10bps spread tightening.
Framework
In each report, the starting question is the same: what specific number is the market implying, and what does the data actually say?
On NuScale, a reverse DCF extracted the market-implied pipeline conversion probability: 45.2%. Stage-gate close rates put the correct estimate at 65%. On ULTA, Placer.ai foot traffic data showed ULTA gaining share while specialty retail declined — months before it appeared in same-store sales. In both cases, observable data was ahead of a consensus model that had not updated yet.
Process
Background
Open to Opportunities
Buy-side and sell-side analyst / associate roles, internships, and conversations about markets. I'm available immediately.